Bernstein keeps a $140 Circle price target as USDC supply jumps $1.7B in a week, pointing to stronger stablecoin demand and Circle growth.
Key Takeaways
- Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and a $140 price target for Circle Internet Group.
- USDC supply increased by about $1.7 billion over the past week, ending a period of roughly six months of sideways decline.
- Bernstein believes Circle’s growth can continue even if the U.S. CLARITY Act does not pass in September.
- Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume reached about $11 trillion in 2025 and is tracking toward an annualized $17 trillion through July 2026.
- Circle shares closed at $87.98 on Friday, leaving Bernstein’s target about 59% above that level.Â
Bernstein is maintaining a bullish outlook on Circle as renewed demand for USDC gives the stablecoin issuer another potential growth catalyst. The research and brokerage firm kept its $140 Circle price target and Outperform rating, arguing that Circle’s current growth cycle is becoming increasingly driven by stablecoin adoption, blockchain-based financial activity and new payment use cases rather than depending entirely on U.S. crypto legislation.
The latest development comes as USDC supply added approximately $1.7 billion in a single week after nearly six months of sideways movement and decline. For investors watching Circle, the change is important because USDC circulation is closely connected to the company’s reserve-income business and the wider demand for its digital-dollar infrastructure.
Circle shares also strengthened alongside the latest bullish research. The stock closed at $87.98 on Friday after gaining more than 5%, according to The Block, meaning Bernstein’s $140 target implies approximately 59% upside from that closing price.
USDC Supply Shows Signs of Returning Growth
The biggest part of Bernstein’s latest thesis is the renewed expansion in USDC supply. After spending almost six months moving sideways or declining, USDC added around $1.7 billion over the past week.
That shift matters because stablecoin supply is one of the clearest indicators of demand for blockchain-based dollars. When users, institutions, exchanges and financial applications require more USDC, additional tokens can enter circulation as demand for the stablecoin increases.
USDC is also being used for more than simply moving money between crypto exchanges. Bernstein highlighted its use as collateral across decentralized finance, tokenized equities, real-world-asset perpetual futures and prediction markets. The wider the number of financial applications using USDC, the greater the potential for Circle to benefit from continued adoption.
Circle’s Growth Is Expanding Beyond Stablecoin Trading
Bernstein’s bullish view is not based solely on USDC supply. The firm believes Circle is positioned to benefit from a broader shift toward blockchain-based financial infrastructure.
Stablecoins are increasingly being used for payments, settlement, decentralized finance and tokenized assets. This gives Circle potential sources of growth beyond the traditional cryptocurrency trading market.
Bernstein also noted that Circle holds roughly 80% of decentralized-exchange trading and decentralized-finance volumes, according to its research. That level of activity gives USDC significant liquidity and distribution advantages across the crypto ecosystem.
The company is also pushing into automated payments through its Agent Stack, which launched in May. Bernstein said the platform now has more than 900 paid services, while 99% of x402 agent-payment volume is settling in USDC. That could become increasingly relevant as AI agents begin making automated payments and interacting with digital financial services.
Stablecoin Transaction Volume Is Surging
The broader stablecoin market provides another reason for Bernstein’s optimism. Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, which excludes bots and high-frequency activity, reached approximately $11 trillion in 2025.
Through July 2026, the metric was tracking toward an annualized $17 trillion, representing roughly 60% year-over-year growth. The trend suggests stablecoins are becoming increasingly important as a financial settlement layer rather than remaining limited to crypto trading.
The supplied Bernstein chart reinforces that trend, showing adjusted stablecoin transaction volume climbing significantly during 2026. June recorded approximately $1.8 trillion in adjusted monthly volume, while July remained strong at roughly $1.3 trillion.
For Circle, growing transaction activity could strengthen USDC’s role as a digital-dollar infrastructure product. It also gives the company exposure to the broader growth of on-chain finance.
CLARITY Act Is Not the Only Catalyst
One of the more notable parts of Bernstein’s analysis is its view that Circle’s growth does not depend on the CLARITY Act passing in September.
The legislation remains an important issue for the U.S. crypto industry because clearer rules could encourage more institutional participation and provide businesses with greater certainty. However, Bernstein believes Circle’s growth cycle is already being supported by several other factors, including stablecoin payments, tokenization and broader regulatory progress.
That makes the legislative timeline less critical to Bernstein’s long-term Circle thesis. Whether the bill passes quickly or faces further delays, the firm believes the underlying demand for stablecoin infrastructure can continue expanding.
Circle Stock Faces a Wide Range of Investor Expectations
Bernstein’s $140 target is notably more bullish than some other Wall Street forecasts. Susquehanna recently raised its Circle target to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating, illustrating the significant disagreement among analysts over how aggressively Circle’s growth should be valued.
That difference is important for investors. Circle remains exposed to competition from other stablecoins, changes in interest rates and fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The company’s reserve income is also an important part of its financial performance, meaning changes in rates and USDC supply can affect its results.
Still, the recent rebound in USDC supply provides a stronger fundamental signal than simply watching Circle’s share price. If supply growth continues, it could support the argument that the company’s long-term expansion story remains intact.
Why It Matters
The latest $140 Circle price target highlights how investors are increasingly treating stablecoins as a major part of the future financial system rather than simply another crypto-market product.
USDC’s $1.7 billion weekly supply increase suggests demand is beginning to recover after months of weakness, while rising stablecoin transaction volumes show that blockchain-based dollars are being used across a growing range of financial applications.
For Circle, the opportunity extends beyond USDC itself. Payments, tokenized assets, decentralized finance and automated AI-driven transactions could all create additional demand for the company’s infrastructure.
The main question now is whether the recent USDC supply increase develops into a sustained trend. If it does, Bernstein’s bullish case for Circle could gain further support.
Conclusion
Bernstein’s $140 Circle price target reflects growing confidence that Circle can continue expanding as USDC adoption accelerates. The stablecoin added approximately $1.7 billion to its supply in one week after months of sideways movement, while adjusted stablecoin transaction volume is tracking toward an annualized $17 trillion in 2026.
Circle’s growth story is also becoming broader, with USDC being used across DeFi, tokenized markets, prediction markets and emerging automated payment systems. Bernstein believes these trends can support Circle even if the CLARITY Act takes longer to pass.
With Circle shares recently closing at $87.98, the $140 target represents a substantial potential upside. But whether that target is ultimately reached will depend on continued USDC supply growth, stablecoin adoption, regulatory developments and Circle’s ability to maintain its position as competition intensifies.
