Bitcoin could have more room to gain ground against gold if investors begin reducing the defensive positions built around Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to analysts at JPMorgan. The bank’s latest assessment focuses less on a direct Bitcoin-versus-gold price call and more on how investors are positioned in the two markets. JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said Bitcoin is currently carrying heavier hedging pressure, which could become a source of support if those positions are unwound.
One of the clearest differences is visible in ETF short interest. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is close to its highest level of the year, while short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) remains below its historical average. JPMorgan also pointed to a higher put-to-call open-interest ratio for IBIT than for GLD. In simple terms, investors appear to be using more downside protection around Bitcoin than they are around gold. If that demand for protection falls, some of those positions could be closed, potentially reducing selling pressure around Bitcoin.
ETF flows provide another part of the picture. Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted inflows after the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, as investors returned to what has been described as the “debasement trade” — positioning around concerns over government debt, monetary policy and the purchasing power of currencies. But the recovery has not been equal. JPMorgan said gold ETFs have recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered roughly half. That leaves Bitcoin with more ground to recover if demand for the asset strengthens again.
The argument does not mean JPMorgan is saying Bitcoin is safer than gold or that Bitcoin must rise. The bank’s point is narrower: Bitcoin currently has more defensive positioning around its ETF market, so an easing of that hedging could provide relatively stronger support. At the same time, the broader environment remains important. JPMorgan said the recent “debasement trade” has weakened as inflation-adjusted bond yields increased, while the failure of the U.S. Senate to advance the CLARITY Act added another source of uncertainty for the crypto market.
For Bitcoin investors, the key issue now is whether the heavy hedging around products such as IBIT begins to fade. If it does, JPMorgan believes Bitcoin could receive more support relative to gold. But ETF flows, interest rates, regulation and broader investor demand will still determine how the market develops. For now, the JPMorgan analysis highlights an important difference between the two assets: gold has already recovered its earlier ETF outflows, while Bitcoin still has a larger positioning gap to work through.
